Follow The Vault & Forge  on Spotify for a weekly markets, economy, and life podcast! The Real Story: Why Cities Leave Money on the Table I’ve sat in at a number of city board meetings. They’re really fascinating if you like the slow, crushing boredom of local politics, formalities, and finance talk. If they get really exciting, they’ll talk roads, water, park, the library might be a hot topic, or maybe talk of gasp! raising taxes or issuing debt to fund a project. Those are some of the sexier municipal topics. Idle asset management? That’s probably on the less sexy side of it. It doesn’t grab the headlines and doing nothing about it won’t get anyone fired. But what can it do? It can quietly bleed community assets and dampen growth for both families and businesses. This is a safe space… we can call it what it is: Inertia… Laziness… that might be a bit harsh Discomfort... Ignorance… But, let’s be honest, there’s a lot of comfort in doing the things we’ve always done. Again, no one gets fired for leaving money in checking, right? But people will get fired for putting municipal – taxpayer – funds in a high-risk asset that loses 40% “suddenly.” So, across small and mid-sized municipalities across our great states, the money just sits… collecting dusk, withering away, emaciated, and starved of purpose while they wait to be distributed for something and, all the while, taxes continue to go up. That’s fine, for a while. But at some point, someone will look up and say, “what the hell are we doing with this money?” after 10 years of it just sitting earning 0.10% in a checking account – meanwhile, inflation has been ripping at 2.5% or 5.5% or even almost 9% in 2022. Suddenly, that “safe” pile of cash doesn’t go as far as you thought even just 5 years ago and, as municipal leaders, we’re back in front of the taxpayers telling them we need to raise their taxes again. Frankly, I think that’s a harder conversation than explaining – or having your asset management partner explain – why the funds were moved, what they’ll be doing and why, and the ultimate benefit to the taxpayer. The Human Side of Change: Council Debate, Community Pushback, and the Grit to Try Anyway   Here’s the secret we all know about change… it doesn’t always feel good, especially not right away. The first time someone suggests putting money to work, they always get “the look.” You know the look I’m talking about. Loaded with skepticism, their careers flashing before their eyes, the flashbacks of Enron or 2008 or whatever financial ghost is still rattling around in the collective memory. It takes a more forward-thinking, open-minded person to ask, “what’s the risk of doing nothing?” That question alone has the power to shift the tone and direction of the conversation in the room because the real risk isn’t in losing all of the city’s money in a pyramid scheme. The real risk is letting your city fall behind year-after-year and then pushing that burden on the taxpayers then patting yourself on the back for “playing it safe.” Here are a few success stories that every municipal leader should be aware of: Quincy, IL This town put their idle funds to work and, since reporting in 2023, was on pace to earn $2 million in investment income. That’s not just a line on spreadsheet. It’s real impact to the community by way of reduced taxes, better roads, and breathing room in the budget. Dieterich, IL A tiny town that had the vision of growing. And it did. It doubled its size by being able to build housing and community amenities that attracted new families and new businesses. Sauk Rapids, MN This Minnesota town of 13,000 residents reinvented it’s downtown, increased property values, AND kept taxes stable in the face of a significant threat from reconstruction. Town of Lee, NY Incredible, this town has been able to turn its finances around by appropriately investing and allocating funds in ways that has resulted in residents not having to pay town taxes SINCE 1981. These towns all took the leap and started taking their finances seriously and in new ways so they could plow those returns back into their communities. They watched people move back, new homes go up, and new energy pumped into dying communities. No disrespect to those who try but you simply can’t do that with grant money or bake sales. It’s not just about numbers. It’s about the message you send to your residents, voters, taxpayers. It’s about telling them that you’re putting every damn dollar you take from them to work. What Stewardship Looks Like: Policy, Oversight, and the Art of Not Screwing Up I don’t want anyone in municipal leadership to be confused by what I’m saying. I’m not telling anyone to hand over the taxpayer wallet to Wall Street. What I’m saying is that you should have a plan. Have a Fully Developed Investment Policy Statement I’ve met with a number of municipalities who either don’t have an IPS or have only a shell because they’ve never needed it given that their funds are primarily sitting in checking. But the meat of these is this: Safety, liquidity, yield. In that order. Always. Hire a Fiduciary Asset Manager Not all financial advisors and companies are built the same. RIAs – registered investment advisors – are advisory companies that can be either registered with their state or federally registered with the SEC. These companies are fiduciary-only and fee-only. This means they don’t sell investments for a commission (sales charges). They charge on-going asset management and advisory fee that isn’t tied to the specific investments provided because they don’t sell investments. They provide them as a result of the clients’ need. While some broker-dealer affiliated companies will have a fiduciary component, they are not fiduciary- and fee-only, as is required for RIAs. Hire an Asset Manager That Knows Municipal Needs There’s a lot of reading, understanding, conversation, and experience required for an advisor to service municipal clients. Many financial advisors don’t want to do that. They don’t want to take on the burden of understanding the State’s requirements to service municipal tax dollars. Just because all advisors can provide investments, it doesn’t mean all advisors should  – this is especially important when it comes to municipalities. Again, not all advisors and companies are built the same. Most importantly, don’t get cute with it. If it sounds too good or feels too good to be true, it likely is. If you stick with what your state allows and if your advisor understands what your state allows and can explain it in plain English, then you can have more confidence in the process. Ultimately, you don’t need to chase every basis point of yield you can possibly get. You just need to make sure your city isn’t getting left behind while others are moving forward all because the checking account was the safest. Bottom Line: Don’t Let Fear or Habit Run the Show Markets will wobble. Some monthly statements will be up, and some will be down. Somebody will question your decision. Headlines might make you question your own decision. That’s life and leadership – especially change leadership. Municipal investing isn’t about being a hero, rather, it’s about being responsible, being a steward, being a caretaker. This means being willing to act on answer, even if it’s uncomfortable or a little scary. So, next time someone says, “that’s just the way we’ve always done it,” for the love of your city, don’t let that be the end of the conversation. Your city might actually thank you for it… instead of just yelling at you at townhall meetings for proposing another tax increase. That’s how you move a city forward. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Financial Advisor Founder Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

Follow The Vault & Forge  on Spotify for a weekly markets, economy, and life podcast! The First Quiet That Makes Space for Better Choices When an inheritance lands, it never feels like a win. It feels complicated, heavy, and personal. I’ve sat with a lot of people in that moment, and the same two forces show up every time. Grief wants time. Responsibility wants decisions. Those two don’t line up on their own. The best way I’ve seen to start is simple: create a little quiet. Move the money to a safe, boring place. Gather the paperwork. Let the house breathe again. You don’t need a perfect plan inside a week. You need room to think without feeling like you’re going to break something. This is what I would consider:  I’d park the funds in a clearly labeled high-yield savings account while the estate details settle and emotions cool. Not as a strategy, just as a holding pattern that keeps options open. Someone else may prefer a different landing spot or a different timeline, which is completely reasonable. One Sentence Before Any Spreadsheets Have a purpose before making a plan. A lot of times this starts with writing down a simple statement to set the intentionality. It doesn't have to be fancy. It just says what the gift is for in your life. Short enough to read out loud. Honest enough to hold up when headlines get loud or nerves flare. When that sentence exists, choices get easier. You can stack decisions against it and tell whether they belong. This is what I would consider:  I’d write one sentence with my spouse, read it out loud, and put it somewhere we’ll see it. If it feels off after a week, I’d rewrite it. The goal isn’t poetry. It’s alignment. Define “Waste” so Drift Doesn’t Decide for You Everyone says the same thing: “I don’t want to waste it.” Fair. The problem is that waste usually isn’t one big splashy purchase. Waste is drift . It’s the quiet creep of subscriptions, upgrades, and impulse choices that don’t match your purpose, but keep charging your card anyway. So, I'd write down a matched pair: what counts as waste for this house and what counts as value. Waste might be stress-creating recurring costs, scattered projects that don’t make life better, or confusion that makes you avoid looking at accounts. Value might be a calmer month, fewer moving parts, long-term options that keep doors open, or a couple of intentional experiences you’ll still talk about later. With those definitions on paper, you’re not guessing afterward. You’re deciding beforehand. This is what I would consider:  I’d keep two short lists for the first year, “What counts as waste to us,” and “What counts as value to us,” and I’d revisit them each quarter. Your lists might look different. That’s the point. Buckets Beat Micromanaging When Life is Full I don’t start with a line-by-line budget when someone’s grieving. I like to start with buckets. Four of them. Buckets show tradeoffs without demanding precision you don’t have yet. Safety Cash that keeps the household steady when the furnace dies, the car needs work, or a job changes. Simplicity Moves that lower mental load, cut clutter, and make the month predictable. Long-term growth Money set aside for future goals, invested in ways that fit your temperament and account options. Life and legacy Purchases or experiences that honor the person you lost and actually improve daily life. I’m not putting percentages on anyone. I’m giving a way to sort choices, so the conversation calms down. If your purpose is your compass, these buckets can be your map. This is what I would consider:  I’d sketch rough ranges for the buckets, live with them, then adjust. Someone else may want tighter ranges, different buckets, or a different order. The framework should serve you, not trap you. Form Isn’t Purpose and That Distinction Helps A pattern I see a lot: people want to keep the money in the exact form their parent used. If Dad loved cash, cash feels sacred. If Mom held certain securities, those tickers feel untouchable. I respect the feeling. I just separate form from purpose. What value did your parent care about. Safety. Independence. Opportunity. Generosity. Once you name that value, you can honor it without treating the specific asset like a museum piece. Purpose endures. Form can change. This is what I would consider:  I’d write a single line that names the value I believe my loved one cared about, and I’d judge future moves by that value rather than by the asset’s original shape. Your read may be different, and that’s okay. Wisconsin’s Backdrop: Titling, Commingling, and Clean Records It might not be the sexy side of money but the legal backdrop matters. Wisconsin is a marital property state. A lot of what’s acquired during marriage is shared but there are meaningful exceptions that many people aren't aware of: Inheritances Gifts Insurance Proceeds These may be treated as individual property when they aren’t commingled. Titling, recordkeeping, and beneficiary designations do a lot of work in the background, especially during stressful moments when clarity is priceless. Couples sometimes turn this into a trust test. It doesn’t have to be that. Clean lines can honor the decedent’s intent, reduce confusion later, and lower resentment. Documentation is part of stewardship, not a judgment on the marriage. This is what I would consider:  I’d keep inherited funds in an individually titled account while we’re making decisions, keep clean records of where money came from and where it went, and confirm beneficiaries on all relevant accounts. I’d also talk with a Wisconsin attorney to understand how the marital property rules, titling, and any agreements fit our facts. Account Types, Taxes, and the Power of a Simple Folder Not every inheritance is plain cash. Sometimes it’s a retirement account with distribution rules and sometimes assets were sold in the estate and basis was reset - those details matter later. The calendar matters too. A little organization early saves a lot of stress later. I’m not asking anyone to live in spreadsheets. I’m saying a simple setup pays for itself. One page that lists institutions, account types, and key contacts. A folder with statements and letters you might need at tax time. A couple of reminders on the calendar to follow through. This is what I would consider:  I’d build a one-pager, keep copies of core documents, and schedule a short meeting with a tax professional to confirm what’s taxable and when. You might already have this dialed in. Great. The goal is clarity. Simplicity Gives Your Attention Back to Your Life Over the last few years, I’ve doubled down on this: Simplicity isn’t about being trendy or minimal. It’s about attention. The more accounts, statements, and small decisions in your month, the less attention you have for work, health, and relationships. When the money side is simpler and more predictable, you get that attention back. You’ll feel it in little ways that will carry fewer surprises and open you day - and your life - more. Shorter bill-pay sessions. Less doom-scrolling your balances when markets wobble. The financial side of your life stops shouting for daily reassurance. This is what I would consider:  I’d mark any account, subscription, or balance that doesn’t earn its keep in clarity or value, then decide whether to keep it or consolidate. Your tolerance for moving parts may be higher. That’s fine. The test is attention, not aesthetics. Investment Structure Without Product Picks or Heroics People ask for the “best” portfolio after an inheritance. I get why people ask the question but, frankly, it's meaningless. The honest answer is everyone's favorite answer of... it depends! It depends on your goals, timelines, taxes, and temperament. Some folks prefer broad, low-cost diversification because it’s easy to live with when life is full. Others prefer more active or values-based approaches because that fits how they see the world. Either way, the trait that matters most is staying power. If the design doesn’t match your nerves, it won’t hold and it won't matter. This is what I would consider:  I’d pick an allocation that fits temperament, automate contributions where possible, and set one standing annual review to rebalance and reflect. Someone else may take a very different path and be well served by it. Consistency is the common thread. What the first Year Can Feel Like When It Works By the end of the first year, the healthiest stories share the same feel. Accounts are cleanly labeled, life feels calmer, and your purpose still fits. The inheritance has turned into cushions, habits, and a couple of planned memories you’ll actually smile about later. The money didn’t vanish into drift, and it didn’t get stuck in amber. It started serving your life. You don’t “win” this by being clever but, rather, you "win" it by being steady, being resilient, and being committed. The hard part is early, when everything feels fragile. Once your purpose and buckets exist, the whole thing quiets down. The gift starts working for you, not running you. This is what I would consider:  I’d set one recurring “Money Day” each year. Read your purpose. Check beneficiaries. Rebalance if needed. Decide whether the buckets still match the life we’re actually living. Someone else may prefer quarterly touchpoints. Pick the rhythm you’ll keep. The Big Idea, Kept Simple An inheritance is part love letter, part responsibility. It doesn’t demand speed, and it doesn’t reward bravado. It rewards attention, clarity, and consistency. A short mission, a few simple buckets, and a pace that fits your temperament can turn a hard season into a sturdier future. That’s not a recommendation. That’s what I’ve seen work, and that’s what I’d consider if it were my call to make. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Financial Advisor Founder Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

Follow The Vault & Forge  on Spotify for a weekly markets, economy, and life podcast! What Should You Do with an IRA You Do Not Need? You worked hard, you saved faithfully, and now your pension and Social Security cover your lifestyle. The IRA sits there, rising and falling with the market, but not really providing any real value to your life. Is doing nothing the best move? Sometimes it can be fine but, often, it's not the most purposeful choice. What I would consider is simple: give that account a role that reflects your values, your family priorities, and your goals for the years you care most about. Why This Feels Hard for Smart Savers Most retirees spent decades cutting away parts of their income and devoting it to saving and investing. Shifting to a season of drawing from savings and investments can feel wrong. It can feel like a violation of what you've accumulated over your lifetime... it can even feel like failure. That's bullshit... I don't see it that way. The point of saving was always freedom, options, and impact. Letting an account sit untouched forever can be a choice, but it can also be inertia in disguise. What I would consider is replacing the fear of spending down with a plan for using well. Using well is not waste, in fact, planning for intentionally using well is called alignment. Begin With Some Grounding Questions Before tactics, I think we all need to consider three basic questions: What would make the next five to ten years meaningfully better for you and your family What do you want the money to accomplish after you are gone What would bring your life more meaning - using it with alignment or letting it continue to accumulate? Real answers, not perfect answers, will sort your IRA into buckets of purpose. Some of that purpose may be enjoyment, some may be family support, some may be generosity, or some may be legacy design. Once those buckets exist, the account is no longer just a number on a page. Instead, it becomes an engine that funds a life you'll recognize when looking at pictures, a life you'll be proud of, and create family memories that no one can ever take away. Joy Today, On Purpose If travel lights you up, focus on the parts that change the experience. A seat that lets you arrive rested. A room that gives you quiet and a view you will still talk about next year. One dinner, one show, or one excursion that turns a good trip into a favorite memory. If the outdoors is your lane, choose gear that gets used. A road bike that fits your body. A kayak that tracks well and keeps you on the water. Garden tools that make time outside feel like therapy, not work. The goal is not to buy toys that gather dust but, rather, to fund memories and energy. Start small so you can measure how it feels to spend that money. If a small upgrade added real value, repeat it with confidence. If it felt like fluff, skip it and redirect the dollars to a different purpose. Spending money can be a trial-and-error process that can lead to immeasurable value later. A Living Inheritance You Can See Many parents and grandparents prefer to help while they can witness the impact. I would consider small, steady gifts tied to real needs. Clearing a lingering high interest balance your adult child cannot seem to kill gives them oxygen and momentum Seeding a 529 for a grandchild and making the contribution part of a birthday tradition builds a story that the child will remember Covering a critical home repair reduces stress without undermining responsibility Funding a certification or licensure that boosts a career can change a decade The dollar amounts can be modest. The relief can be huge. The point is not to rescue capable adults from every hard thing. The point is to turn money into momentum and to do it in a way that respects work and accountability. If you pursue this path, document gifts cleanly, keep the pattern consistent, and set expectations early. Boundaries and generosity can live together. Charitable Impact That Is Simple to Run If generosity is central to your values, build a habit instead of writing a once in a decade check. Choose a short list of organizations that match your convictions. Set a yearly target and automate support so the habit does the heavy lifting. Share the "why" with your family and invite them into the story. Decide in advance what success looks like. You might want to see a certain number of local students attend a camp each summer, or a food pantry that never has to turn a family away, or a sanctuary that expands its work by one more acre each year. When you can see outcomes, you stay engaged, and the giving feels less like paperwork and more like purpose. If you like to roll up your sleeves, add a volunteer day each quarter. Money plus time is a powerful mix that builds meaning beyond the transfer itself. Future Flexibility and Clean Estate Design If you truly do not need the IRA for lifestyle, consider moves that simplify tomorrow. Review primary and contingent beneficiaries so the right people and charities inherit the right accounts. If you hold multiple accounts, decide which ones are best suited for heirs with different needs. Some heirs may need structure. Some may need flexibility. You can plan for both. In years when your income is lower, consider measured conversions to a Roth account. The goal is not to chase a perfect tax win. The goal is to reduce future tax friction, diversify your tax buckets, and give heirs cleaner options. Keep the steps moderate and matched to your broader plan, not one-off stunts that create surprise bills. Future you will appreciate the simplicity. Your executor will, too. Guardrails That Make This Comfortable A plan beats vibes. Create simple guardrails that keep the approach comfortable and repeatable. Set a legacy target for heirs or charities that feels right for your values and your balance sheet. Set a yearly budget for joy and giving that will be funded by the IRA. Make the budget real rather than aspirational so you can stick to it during quiet markets and noisy markets. Automate monthly or quarterly transfers from the IRA into a separate spending account that exists for these purposes only. Automation eliminates second guessing and reduces the chance that good ideas die in the inbox. Review once a year to confirm that spending stayed inside the lines, that gifts landed well, and that the legacy target still fits. Adjust for markets, health, and priorities. With guardrails in place, you can enjoy the money without guilt, and you will also know when to tap the brakes because the plan will tell you. Keeping Taxes Human Without Letting Taxes Be the Boss I have never seen a family regret matching withdrawals to goals. I have seen families regret letting the calendar dictate every decision. Coordinate gifts, charitable giving, and any conversions with your tax bracket and Medicare thresholds. Align timing so support arrives when it helps most. Stage family gifts so they build habits, not dependency. Fit any conversion into a year when the impact is manageable. Keep an eye on brackets and state rules, but do not let the tax tail wag the dog. The aim is fewer surprises and more control, not a gold star for squeezing every last dollar from the code. Clean execution with clear intent usually beats a complex maneuver that nobody wants to repeat. Required Minimums Still Matter Even if you do not need the cash flow now, required distributions will begin in your early seventies. Plan ahead so those dollars do not show up as an afterthought. Tie them to your purpose buckets in advance. Use them to fund the joy and giving budget. Use them to support a living inheritance rhythm. Use them to meet charitable goals in a way that feels clean and consistent. When distributions are part of the script, they stop feeling like a nuisance and start feeling like another tool that pushes your plan forward. If You Still Feel Stuck, Try a Pilot Some clients still feel a mental block even with buckets and guardrails. In that case, run a pilot. Move a modest amount from the IRA into checking this quarter and give the dollars a single job. Book a better flight that lets you arrive without back pain. Host a weekend with the grandkids and cover the fun. Make a donation that buys something tangible your favorite nonprofit can point to with pride. Afterward, ask a simple question. Did that feel like waste, or did that feel like life. Your honest answer will point the way. If it felt like life, keep the pilot running for another quarter and then formalize it in next year’s plan. If it felt flat, redirect to a different bucket and test again until you find the mix that fits who you are. When Leaving It Alone Is the True Goal Some readers decide that they truly want the account untouched for life. That is a valid choice. If that is your goal, still be intentional. Confirm beneficiaries and contingents Keep records tidy and stored in a place a trusted person can access Make sure someone knows where the accounts are and how to reach your advisor Consider a short letter of wishes that gives heirs context for the gift, along with encouragement and any practical guidance you want to pass along. When you choose purposefully to preserve, you remove the quiet doubt that can creep in later. Common Traps to Avoid Do not turn every decision into a tax contest that drains your energy. Wise planning matters, but perfectionism creates stress and often backfires. Avoid one time splurges that do not match who you are the rest of the year. It is fine to do one grand trip if it fits your story. It is better when that trip reflects what you value most. Do not rely on silent gifting that later creates resentment among family members who discover it after the fact. If fairness matters, define fairness in your family, write it down, and follow it. Do not let the market alone determine your mood. Balance matters, but purpose matters more, and purpose is under your control. Bottom Line IRAs are not trophies. They are tools. If your account is just sitting there, I would consider giving it a clear role that serves your values. Spend with intent where it adds real life. Support the people you love in ways that build momentum. Strengthen the causes you believe in with habits, not one offs. Simplify the future so heirs inherit with fewer surprises. Start small, automate where you can, review yearly, and let the plan evolve as your life evolves. The win is not a perfect spreadsheet. The win is a life that looks like you, funded by the savings you worked hard to build. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Founding Advisor Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

Follow The Vault & Forge  on Spotify for a weekly markets, economy, and life podcast! This is the first post to launch something I’ve been building toward for a long time. I’m Jose Alvarez, owner of Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies in Amery, Wisconsin. If you’ve found your way here, thank you for taking the time to learn about me, my firm, and what makes us different from the other wealth management firms in the area. My Background: From the Army to Advisory I didn’t start my career in finance. For the first ten years of my professional life, I served in the U.S. Army as a paratrooper and infantryman. I led reconnaissance operations across the world. That experience shaped who I am, but it didn’t directly translate into financial planning. After leaving the military, I pursued my MBA and entered banking in 2018. From there, I built a path into financial advising and ultimately became a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® professional. Over the years, I’ve seen the good and the bad in our industry. Those lessons led me to start my own firm. Why I Started Harvest Horizon Wealth I began in credit unions and banks, where the focus was often on selling mutual funds and annuities for commissions. Financial planning was rarely mentioned in my early career. Profitability tended to overshadow client outcomes. I knew I wanted something different—something client-centered, not sales-driven. Though I loved the company I worked for, it changed hands, and I had to find my own path. That’s why in March 2025, I launched Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies as a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) . Unlike brokerages or hybrids, we are fee-only . That means no sales charges (commissions), no product sales, and no hidden incentives. Our work is built entirely on the fiduciary standard—always acting in your best interest, without exception. What We Do (and Don’t Do) At Harvest Horizon Wealth, our work goes beyond investment management. We focus on comprehensive wealth management , which includes: Investment strategy Tax planning Estate planning Business transition strategies Family governance and wealth transfer planning What we don’t do is just as important. We don’t sell insurance or annuities. While we help you think about those needs, we don’t take commissions. Our advice remains independent and as close to conflict-free as we can get. Why This Matters Plenty of advisors use the word “ fiduciary ,” but not all are fiduciaries all the time. In many brokerage or hybrid models, fiduciary duty only applies to certain accounts or situations. With us, it’s the standard for every client relationship. Every time we make a recommendation, regardless of the situation, we adhere to this standard. That means when you work with me, conversations aren’t limited by corporate risk controls or sales quotas. We talk about taxes, estate planning, family preparedness, and business succession. Your financial life is bigger than the market’s daily performance. Who We Serve For high-net-worth families, the focus is often on tax strategy, estate design, succession, and preparing heirs. For families still building wealth, the conversations may center on automating savings, protecting income with the right insurance, and ensuring estate planning is in place to protect children. The situations differ, but the principle is the same: aligning your wealth with the life you want for yourself, your family, and your future. Looking Ahead This blog—alongside the companion YouTube channel, The Vault & Forge —is where I’ll share insights on the markets, the economy, the Fed, and even some policy developments that affect investors. Some readers will prefer to watch, others to read, but the goal is the same: keeping you informed and equipped to make better financial decisions. This is just the beginning, and I look forward to the conversations we’ll build from here. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Founding Advisor Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

Follow The Vault & Forge  on Spotify for a weekly markets, economy, and life podcast! Let’s start with a familiar name: Robert Kiyosaki. Recently, Kiyosaki made another bold claim, saying a "civil war has begun" and urging Americans to put their cash into gold, silver, and Bitcoin. The problem with these “doomsday callers” is that they live on repeat. They make a dramatic call once, it gets attention, and then they spend the rest of their careers chasing that same lightning strike. The thing is... if you keep screaming about a storm coming, eventually you’ll be right. Markets are cyclical they'll ebb and flow. Good days come and are followed by bad days. But most of the time, these claims are wrong. We know that because markets, historically, have gone up about 75% of the time. At some point that won't be the case... fine... but I don't know that it'll happen any time soon. But if you ask people like this, they'll tell you it's right around the corner and I can’t help but wonder how they don’t get tired of being wrong. Five-Year and Ten-Year Performance I pulled up five-year charts for Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, and the S&P 500. Why five years? Because it was the easiest click. No cherry picking here... just good ol' fashioned laziness. Bitcoin:  up nearly 1,000% Gold:  up 75% Silver:  up 44% S&P 500:  up 82% Looking back over ten years, annualized returns stack up like this: Bitcoin:  84.5% S&P 500:  14.5% Gold:  11% Silver:  10% Those are strong numbers all around. Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged 9–10% annually over the last 60–70 years, so seeing the past decade hit 14.5% should be encouraging to investors in itself - regardless of its comparison to Bitcoin. The Missing Piece: Risk Returns only tell half the story. What really matters is the risk you take to get them. Ten-year annualized volatility: Bitcoin:  67% S&P 500:  18% Gold:  14.5% Silver:  26% For most people, it’s not realistic to master both your own profession and the nuances of investment risk analysis. It's too complicated. It's too convoluted. Frankly, it's boring a.f. to someone who might just be doing this to play around. If you're a nurse, teacher, engineer, construction worker, parent , etc... you have enough on your plate. You don't need to try to be an investment analyst, too. But for those of you who DIY investments, volatility (called standard deviation) is one of those concepts that’s critical but often overlooked. Standard Deviation in Plain English If you think back to high school statistics, you might remember the bell curve. One standard deviation (the dark blue middle of the curve) captures about 68% of outcomes. Two standard deviations (the light blue section) cover about 95% of outcomes. For the S&P 500 over the last decade (14.5% average return ± 17.7% standard deviation): One standard deviation range:  –3.2% to +32.2% Two standard deviation range:  –21% to +50% For Bitcoin (84.6% average return ± 67.1% standard deviation): One standard deviation range:  –17.5% to +151.7% Two standard deviation range:  –50% to +219% Many of the client I work with would have a hard time stomaching the volatility that comes from simply owning the S&P 500. Imagine having an investment make up the majority of your investment and carries a volatility window that is 5x that of the S&P 500... that’s a massive window. When you invest, you have to remember: It’s not just about potential upside. It’s about whether or not you can stomach the downside. Why I Don’t Own Bitcoin Here’s where I stand: I don’t own Bitcoin, and I don’t plan to. People assume non-owners fall into three camps: They’re bitter against it and everyone who's benefitted from it because they didn't invest and “missed the boat." It’s a generational divide (younger investors own it, older ones don’t) - I can agree with this stance. They don’t want to look foolish buying at $100k in 2025 when it used to be like $30k in 2019. I’m mid-30s, and I still don’t buy it. For me, the issue is intrinsic value. Bitcoin absolutely has a price , which is north of $100,000 per coin today. But price and value aren’t the same thing. I don’t believe the intrinsic value supports the price. When Bitcoin first came out, the fairytale was that it would replace global currencies. As far as I'm concerned, that was never realistic. It wasn't in 2009 and it's still not in 2025. I don't see a scenario where countries give up a major part of their sovereign strength and pride by giving up their currency for Bitcoin. Bitcoin itself doesn't have anything special. It's just the brand name of crypto. Blockchain, which Bitcoin operates on, is an immediate settlement system with very high levels of security and anonymity. Useful, sure, but not revolutionary enough to justify its current valuation. To me, at its core, Bitcoin is nothing more than a highly sophisticated payments processor. Because I believe this, I ran an exercise: if Bitcoin’s growth had mirrored other payment processors like Visa, MasterCard, PayPal, and Venmo (with a premium for sophistication), what would it be worth today? I asked ChatGPT to run the simulation and give me the potential outcomes. According to ChatGPT's simulations and given the inputs I gave it, Bitcoin should be worth about $2,400 per coin today . That’s a far cry from $100,000+ and only further solidifies why I don't own it. I don't care that people really want it... I don't believe it has the value reflected in the price. I don't feel a need to follow the herd - even if it costs me money. Final Thoughts Bitcoin has been an incredible performer in terms of returns, volatility, and even risk-adjusted measures like the Sharpe ratio. But I don’t own it because I view it as speculation, not investment. For me, the fundamentals don’t support the story. Could I be wrong? Maybe. But even if Bitcoin hits $10 million per coin, I’ll still sleep at night knowing I made my decision based on risk, value, and discipline. I don't lose sleep over not winning the Powerball drawing and I won't lose sleep over not holding Bitcoin. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Founding Advisor Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

Follow The Vault & Forge  on Spotify for a weekly markets, economy, and life podcast! What Just Happened and Why It Matters A bipartisan group of 18 state attorneys general is asking a federal judge to reject Capital One’s proposed $425 million class-action settlement over allegedly shortchanging its customers. The states say existing 360 Savings customers were left at about 0.30% while new 360 Performance Savings customers saw 4%+, and that the deal would let the bank keep the unfair playbook. The settlement is structured as $300 million to class members plus $125 million in “additional interest” credits; Capital One denies wrongdoing. The AGs estimate the average loss was about $717, with typical payouts around $54, and argue the bank could retain $2.5+ billion in avoided interest. Reuters My opinion: this just reinforces - kind of publicly - what many of us already feel a lot of times... that it's profitable for mega-corporations to take advantage of customers because all they ever get is a slap on the wrist. They know the profit they'll make will outweigh the punishment the government will hand down when caught. Again... Capital One denies wrongdoing. Don’t Be Shocked... Here’s Why “Old vs New” Pricing Happens Speaking as someone who’s been on the inside: banks segment customers. Legacy products get sunset, new products launch with teaser economics, and marketing budgets flow to acquisition. Not to mention that when a bank set up these "specials," they often require you make them your primary bank - set up direct deposit, auto-pay, debit cards...etc. Is it fair? Some disagree. Is it common? Yes. And crucially, banks and credit unions are not fiduciaries to your idle cash ; they’re custodians of deposits and they optimize for their own spread - not yours. That’s not moral judgment, it’s business reality. What Savings Accounts Are (and Aren’t) Savings accounts exist to hold money safely and keep it liquid. They are not a growth engine. As of mid-September 2025, the FDIC national average savings rate is ~0.40% - a number of large banks can anchor to - while “high-yield” offers are materially higher for new money and new customers. FDIC So yes, you can earn more, if you’re willing to move. But constantly rate-chasing is a part-time job. The better fix is a cash policy. Cash Policy Example - Simple, Rules-Based Define the number. Target 3-9 months of fixed expenses - maybe more for someone within a year of retirement - plus any known lump costs due in the next year (taxes, tuition, a roof). That is your cash line. Automate the refill. Monthly or quarterly, drop cash back to target using interest, dividends, and small trims from appreciated positions. Above the line, cash is excess. Give excess a job. Stability (1–5 years): Short/intermediate, high-quality bonds, T-bills, or a ladder that matches upcoming needs. Growth (5+ years): Broad, low-cost equities and other long-horizon assets. Accept volatility, hedge with time. Use rules, not vibes. Rebalance on a schedule or with bands (for example, ±20% of target weights). Fund withdrawals from cash and Stability during equity drawdowns. Insurance > Teaser APYs When you keep meaningful balances, know which backstop you’re relying on: FDIC (banks): $250,000 per depositor, per bank, per ownership category. Joint accounts allow each co-owner a separate $250,000. IRAs are a separate category. FDIC+1 NCUA (credit unions): Mirrored limits - $250,000 per member-owner, per ownership category; joint and certain trust structures can increase coverage. NCUA+1 SIPC (brokerage): Protection if a broker fails, up to $500,000, including $250,000 cash - not protection against market losses. Many custodians carry excess SIPC on top that can cover up to hundreds of millions. SIPC Takeaway: Spread large balances thoughtfully across institutions and ownership types, and don’t confuse FDIC/NCUA with market guarantees - or SIPC with FDIC. Banks vs. Credit Unions: No Halos Credit unions market themselves as “member-owned,” and many offer great service. But in practice both banks and credit unions run the same product playbook when rates move: attractive new money offers, legacy tiers lagging. Neither structure makes an institution a fiduciary. What matters is your selection and your process. About That “Savings Rates Used to Be 11% in the 80s” Point True. Headline savings yields were double-digit in parts of the early 1980s. But so were mortgages and auto loans. Rate regimes are an ecosystem, not a gift. Comparing your 2025 savings APY to a 1981 outlier without the rest of the system (inflation, borrowing costs) misses the forest for the trees. What matters is your after-tax, after-inflation outcome across cash, bonds, and equities - organized by time horizon. Practical Workflow Example Inventory cash across banks and credit unions Map FDIC/NCUA categories and identify uninsured balances. Set the cash line Automate refills and move surplus to a T-bill ladder or high-quality bond sleeve inside the right account for taxes. Consolidate “high yield” accounts Reduce busywork while keeping rates competitive. Document a withdrawal order (taxable → tax-deferred → Roth, or a tailored version) Coordinate with required withdrawals and Social Security timing. Keep the Growth sleeve broad, low-cost, and globally diversified Rebalance on rules. Focus on being rational, not emotional Corrections and Clarifications from the Early Headlines Average loss vs. payout: The states peg the average consumer loss at ~$717, not $117. Typical payouts modeled around $54 are why they’re urging rejection. Reuters Settlement composition: The proposed $425M is $300M in cash plus $125M in additional interest credits; Capital One denies wrongdoing. Reuters Why this keeps happening: Product segmentation and acquisition economics - not a special “bank vs. credit union” moral divide - drive legacy-vs-new rate gaps. Rate backdrop today: The FDIC national average is about 0.40%, while competitive accounts still show ~4%+ despite a recent Fed cut. FDIC+1 Bottom line Don’t let outrage drive the plan. Define your cash number, place surplus with intention, protect it with the right insurance framework, and invest the rest according to time horizon. Banks and credit unions will keep optimizing for their P&L. You should optimize for your balance sheet. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Founding Advisor Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

Follow The Vault & Forge  on Spotify for a weekly markets, economy, and life podcast! Why This Question Comes Up So Often I hear versions of this question all the time from folks who are working hard, building careers, and trying to make smart money decisions in real life, not in a textbook. Recently I came across a social media post were the author said they make about 78,000 dollars a year in base pay, up to 85,000 dollars with bonuses. They contribute 8 percent to their 401(k), and someone advised them to go to 10 percent. Their company matches up to 7 percent. They wondered if the extra dollars might be “better” in other investments. I get it. I have wrestled with the same trade-offs in my own life. I have set my own contributions to auto-increase over time, and I have intentionally split my savings between retirement accounts and a taxable brokerage account. I want my future to be funded, and I also want money that I can deploy for opportunities and experiences while I am still young enough to enjoy them. If you've asked yourself a similar question, you are not alone. The real issue is not 401(k) versus “other stuff.” The real issue is sequence and purpose. First, you lock in the free returns. Second, you push your savings rate higher in a way you barely notice. Third, you decide how much flexibility you need in your life and aim part of your savings at that goal. Start With the Highest-Return, Lowest-Risk Move: The Match The employer match is part of your compensation. Treat it that way, and do not leave it on the table. If your plan matches up to 7 percent, step one is to contribute at least 7 percent. I know that sounds basic, but many people miss pieces of the match because they change jobs, forget to set a percentage on day one, or let a raise come and go without adjusting their deferrals. The match is as close to a guaranteed return as you will find in personal finance. Capture every penny, every paycheck, every year. If you are already contributing 8 percent, and the match is 7 percent, you're clearing the first hurdle. Nice work. The Automation Trick That Quietly Raises Your Savings Rate Behavior beats tactics. If you automate good behavior, you'll win by default. I am a big fan of auto-escalation. At one of my past employers, the plan auto-increased contributions by 1% each year until you hit 10%. You could also set it to continue climbing beyond 105. It was incredibly effective, because a 1% change is barely noticeable in take-home pay, yet over time it adds up in a meaningful way. If you are at 8 percent today, setting your plan to increase by 1% per year could lead to some pretty dramatic benefits over time. In a few years you will be at 12%, and you will not have felt much pain getting there. I have used this approach personally, and I still use it with clients, because it respects human nature. Nobody wakes up excited to manually update payroll deferrals. Automation does it for you, quietly and consistently. What 401(k) Menus Usually Look Like, and Why That Matters Simpler menus are common. Participation and oversight drive those decisions more than anything else. Most 401(k) menus are short. You will see a handful of target date funds, a broad U.S. equity fund, an international fund, a bond fund, and a cash or money market option. Plans keep menus tight for several practical reasons. Simpler menus can lead to higher participation, lower confusion, and a cleaner fiduciary process for the plan sponsor. If too many employees disengage or fail discrimination tests, the plan risks top-heavy problems, which is a headache for the employer and, indirectly, for you. Target date funds are like one-size-fits-all shirt. They start aggressive when you are young, then they gradually get more conservative as you approach retirement. Will they work? Sure. Will they make you look good? Tough call. If a target date fund gets you invested and keeps you invested, I am okay with that. If you want more control, you can build with the core funds but as a DIY-er, it might be beneficial to keep it simple or under the advisement of your advisor. Where “Better” Might Be True: Outside Accounts and Customization Once the match is secured, extra dollars can flow to places that offer either better tax positioning or more flexibility for your life. Traditional IRA and Roth IRA If you want more investment choice than your 401(k) offers, an IRA gives you a much wider universe. You can build a low-cost, diversified portfolio with broad market funds, factor funds, sector funds, or individual stocks if you want to. The big choice here is tax treatment. Traditional IRA contributions, if deductible for you, lower your taxable income now and grow tax deferred. Roth IRA contributions are after-tax, but they grow tax free, and you do not owe tax on qualified withdrawals in retirement. Eligibility rules apply, so you need to make sure you qualify or consider legal routes like the backdoor Roth if appropriate. I like the Roth for younger savers who expect higher income later and value tax-free growth. I also like the simplicity. What you see is what you own. No future tax surprise if rates change. That said, every situation is unique, and a traditional IRA can still make sense for certain taxpayers who benefit from the deduction today. Taxable Brokerage Account If you hear me talk long enough, you will hear me say this. I love the flexibility of a taxable brokerage account. There is no early withdrawal penalty. You can invest in almost anything that fits your plan. You can harvest losses in bad markets to offset gains or income elsewhere, then reinvest and keep compounding. You do not get the clean tax treatment of a Roth, and you do have to plan around capital gains, interest, and dividends. Still, the liquidity and optionality are huge. This is the account that lets you do real life. Want to take your spouse and kids to Greece for two weeks next summer and pay cash without guilt? That can come from the brokerage account. Want seed money to start a business when the right opportunity shows up? That can come from the brokerage account. Want to help a child with a first car or an education expense without dealing with 529 restrictions? Again, brokerage. It gives you choices, and choices have value. A Simple Sequence I Like to Follow There is no perfect formula for everyone, but there is a sensible order of operations that works in most cases. Capture the full 401(k) match.  That is the floor. I don't lose free pay. Auto-escalate my 401(k) savings rate by 1 percent a year  until I've reached my long-term target - often 12 to 15 percent of gross income, including the match. Decide how much flexibility I want in my life over the next 3 to 10 years.  If the answer is “a lot,” I'll channel extra dollars into a taxable brokerage account. If I'm more focused on retirement tax planning, push extra to a Roth IRA or, if available and appropriate, a Roth 401(k) source inside my plan. If my plan offers a good Roth 401(k) and I'm in a relatively low tax bracket right now,  defer to the Roth. Once I have the retirement and brokerage pillars in place,  add in purpose-built accounts as needed - like 529 plans for education, HSA if available for triple tax advantages, or a UTMA for a minor. This is not about choosing a single best account. It is about assembling the right mix for real life, taxes, and goals. What I Do Personally I practice what I preach, and I adjust as my life changes. I run my own contributions on autopilot. For a long stretch, I had 12 percent flowing to my 401(k) from every paycheck. On top of that, a fixed monthly dollar amount went to a taxable brokerage account. My wife’s retirement account received a set contribution, and my son’s UTMA received another. When you add it all up, our household savings rate sits around 25 percent of income. The exact mix has changed over time, but the rule is the same: automate the future, then live the present with less guilt, less friction, and more intention. I like knowing the boring stuff is handled so our mortgage, car, normal bills, retirement savings, and our kid’s bucket all happen on schedule. That frees me up to spend without second guessing every coffee or lunch. I have already taken care of later, so I can enjoy now. A Word on Guilt and Spending If you automate a serious savings plan, you earn the right to spend without shame. Too many people feel bad about normal life because money advice on the internet can be loud and rigid. I am not interested in shaming anyone. If you hit your savings targets, keep your plan in balance, and avoid debt traps, go have some experiences. Take your spouse on a trip. Play golf with a friend. Bring your kids to a game. Your memories are part of your return on investment, even if a spreadsheet cannot measure them. This is where the brokerage account shines. It is the pressure valve that lets you participate in life without beating yourself up. It is not a tax shelter, but it is a freedom tool. I would rather see a client saving at a strong rate and enjoying their life than deferring everything to an unknown retirement that might not look the way they imagine. When “Other Investments” Actually Make Sense Sometimes the best move is outside the 401(k), not because the 401(k) is bad, but because your goals require flexibility or specialization. Here are a few cases where I often direct extra dollars away from the 401(k), after the match and basic targets are handled. Entrepreneurial runway.  If someone plans to start a business in the next few years, they'll likely need accessible capital. Build the brokerage balance first. Big-ticket goals inside 5 years.  House down payment, adoption costs, a sabbatical, or extended travel. The timeline is too short for retirement accounts to be useful. Specialized investment approach.  If someone wants to own individual stocks, factor tilts, or niche funds that their 401(k) does not offer, an IRA or brokerage account is the right tool. Tax bracket management.  If someone's in a lower bracket today than they expect in the future, Roth contributions can be powerful. If they sit in a high bracket right now and benefit from deductions, a traditional 401(k) or IRA may help. The point is to use the right tool for the current season of life. None of this requires turning your back on the 401(k). It requires a plan that respects both today and tomorrow. Portfolio Simplicity Beats Constant Tweaks Most of the win comes from your savings rate, your time in the market, and your fees, not from chasing the perfect mix every quarter. Inside the 401(k), a target date fund or a simple three-fund mix can help get started. In an IRA or brokerage account, you can add personalization, goals and needs-based investing, nuance if you enjoy it. I care about costs, taxes, and behavior. Costs and taxes are math. Behavior is where most plans fail. Automate the behavior, and the math has a chance to work. The Age Access Rules, Without the Jargon Penalties are real, and they can be avoided with planning. Retirement accounts are designed for retirement. In general, withdrawals before age 59.5 trigger a 10% penalty, plus taxes if the money is pre-tax. There are exceptions, especially inside 401(k)s for certain circumstances, but those are exceptions, not a plan. This is one reason I highlight the brokerage account so often. If you know there is a strong chance you will need money before age 59.5, I'd think twice before locking every dollar inside retirement accounts. Final Thoughts: “Better” Is Personal The 401(k) is not your enemy. It is a reliable workhorse. The question is how to fit it into a larger life plan. I have seen people thrive with a very straightforward approach - capture the match, automate the climb to a double-digit savings rate, then split the extra between retirement and a taxable brokerage account in a way that matches their life. When you do that, you buy two things at once. You buy future freedom, and you buy present quality of life. I care about both - for my family and my clients. If you want help dialing this in for your exact situation, that is what I do every day. We look at your income, benefits, household goals, and tax picture, then build a plan that you can stick to. The right plan is the one that you will follow, and the best time to start is now. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Founding Advisor Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

Follow The Vault & Forge  on Spotify for a weekly markets, economy, and life podcast! The Feel of the Fourth Quarter Every fall the rhythm changes. The federal fiscal year resets on October 1, holiday plans start swallowing weekends, and companies button up budgets. Money moves with a little more purpose. If you have watched markets for a few seasons, you can feel it before you see it. What The Tape Has Shown Since 1928, the average quarter for the S&P 500 has landed a bit above 2%, while Q4 comes in closer to 3%. Zooming in on monthly data since 1950, September is the only month with a negative average, February, June, and August are typically sleepy, and November - with December close behind - does much of the year’s heavy lifting. When We Enter Q4 Already Up There is a quirk that surprises newer investors. If the index is up 10% or more by the September 30 close, the average Q4 since 1950 has been a bit above 5%. Without that head start, the long‑run Q4 sits nearer 3%. No signal light flashes green because of this, but the wind tends to shift in your favor. Averages Hide Weather History is lumpy. The best Q4 on record, 1954, added more than 11% but the worst, 1987, took more than -23%. Those outliers live inside every long‑term average so planning only for calm seas is not a plan, it's a surefire way to be surprised every time the market dips. How I Use Seasonality (Without Trading the Calendar) I treat it as posture, not prediction. If Q4 tends to help, I want clients positioned to benefit without needing to guess the week-to-week. That means staying invested, keeping contributions on schedule, and letting written rebalance rules do the boring work when allocations drift. Taxes get the same attention - loss harvesting, charitable gifts from appreciated stock, and measured Roth conversions build quiet value that does not depend on a year‑end rally. Liquidity matters too. Adequate cash and short‑term reserves keep life from forcing sales just because headlines spike. Reality Check Averages are not outcomes. Calendar patterns can fail for long stretches. The odds of seeing  a down market rise the longer you are invested because you live through more seasons; the odds of finishing  ahead rise with time because compounding gets more swings at the ball. Both statements can be true, and both inform a patient process. Where This Leaves Us Yes, Q4 often helps. The data supports a cautiously optimistic posture, especially if the year is already positive heading into October. But the driver is still discipline - your savings rate, your mix of assets, your willingness to rebalance when it feels inconvenient, and the choice to hold enough cash so markets do not dictate your life. If you want to pressure‑test that mix before year‑end, I am here for that work. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Founding Advisor Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

For More Content Like This, Visit The Vault & Forge Podcast on Spotify That MarketWatch “open letter” telling Jerome Powell not  to cut rates? It doesn’t land the way the author thinks it does. It's written well, makes an argument that I believe the writer believes, and makes a fair point about Fed independence. There's no doubt there. But then the article veers into a flawed, condescending take on those calling for a rate cut. Let’s dig into both sides of this. The Independence of the Fed Must Be Protected And yes, Trump is undermining that. I think we should all agree: The Federal Reserve should never be an extension of the White House. When President Trump openly, and nastily, attacks Powell, both personally and professionally, he's not just being critical, he's setting a dangerous precedent. The strength of our financial system depends on an independent central bank. It’s one of the reasons: The U.S. dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, Inflation hasn’t run out of control (despite post-COVID volatility), and Americans still have faith in the numbers they see in their retirement accounts. If the Fed bends to political pressure now, what happens when this administration is over? Do we just swap in a new Fed Chair every time a new President wants their own economic agenda rubber-stamped? That’s not monetary policy. That’s bullshit. So yes, I agree with the author: protecting the Fed’s independence matters. But… Where the Author Goes Completely Off Track This is where it gets messy. The writer claims people calling for rate cuts are showing “their own ignorance.” That’s not just wrong, it’s economically shallow. Let’s clear up what the Fed actually  controls: The Fed sets the federal funds rate That’s the overnight  interest rate banks charge each other. It does not  directly set Mortgage Rates 10-year Treasury Yields Corporate Bond Spreads Those long-term rates are set by market forces Supply and Demand Inflation Expectation Investor Confidence in Economic Growth In fact, markets have already priced in lower rates but not because Powell pulled a lever, because inflation is cooling, growth is slowing, and investors expect the Fed to act soon . That’s why mortgage rates, bond yields, and credit spreads have come down in recent months. So when long-term borrowing costs fall despite  no change in the fed funds rate, that’s not “the Fed cutting rates.” That’s the market anticipating  rate cuts. Here's a good metaphor explaining how the author's understanding is off target: The Fed is holding the thermostat steady. The market saw cooler weather and opened the windows. The author is giving credit to the thermostat for the breeze. Let’s Talk Inflation Moving on from the "open letter," we’re fighting the wrong fight. The Fed’s target inflation rate is 2.0%. A good, sensible target. But let’s put things in perspective. I pulled inflation data going back to 1991 (that's the year I was born so no fancy reason, just personal relevance). And you know what? We’ve never hit 2.0%. The historical average since 1991 is 2.65% . Where are we year-to-date in 2025? 2.7%. You read that right. We’re arguing over 0.05% . That's less than the rounding error on a gas station receipt. Inflation isn’t a precise dial you turn. It’s a messy process driven by consumer behavior, supply chains, global energy markets, and more. The idea that Powell must see 2.00% on the dot before making a move is nonsense. It's dogmatic and dangerous. The Labor Market Just Gave Us a Massive Wake-Up Call Now that we've gotten these numbers, this is probably the most compelling reason. The latest jobs data shows the U.S. lost 911,000 jobs  over the 12 months ending in March 2025. That’s a massive downward revision from what we thought we knew. And this isn’t just a blip. It’s a flashing red sign that the labor market is weakening. If we wait for that to hit the unemployment rate, it'll be too late. The Fed Is Waiting for... What, Exactly? This isn’t strength. It’s stubbornness. Powell’s defenders say he’s holding out to show the world that the Fed is “independent.” But here’s the thing: Delaying a rate cut just to make a point isn't independence. It’s pride masquerading as policy. It's politics covered up as diligence. And if Jerome Powell continues to ignore softening job data, the cooling economy, and the fact that we’re sitting almost exactly  at our 30-year average inflation rate, he’s not being prudent anymore... he’s letting his own politics get in the way. That’s not strength. That’s weakness. It’s Time to Cut Though the argument can be made for a 50bp cut, I expect just a quarter point. The most important thing is to just start. The Fed has signaled it might cut in September. Good. They should. A 25-basis-point move would acknowledge where we are economically, without overcommitting. It would show responsiveness without appearing reactive. It would help stabilize credit markets, boost business confidence, and avoid deeper damage to a labor market that is clearly starting to unravel. This isn’t about “doing what Wall Street wants.” It’s about doing what’s right for where we are economically and not letting the last few basis points of inflation obsession derail a healthy economy. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Founding Advisor Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

A client of mine asked me this one and it's surprised me. Not because I hadn’t heard it before, but because it’s one of those things nobody ever really teaches you and it hadn't come up before: “How the hell do I pay myself? And how do I know if it’s the right amount?” He owns a very specialized agricultural operation and keeping my client's privacy is important... But the story? It’s not uncommon. Like many in agriculture, he inherited the operation from his parents a few years back and has absolutely poured himself into it since - reinvesting millions of dollars in personal assets and business earnings. He’s grown the business, upgraded the equipment, improved the facilities, hired more workers, expanded product lines, and increased production. It’s thriving. And yet… this was still the question: "How do I pay myself?" Most Entrepreneurs Just Guess—Until They Can’t Anymore Up until that point, he’d been taking an annual draw - more of an educated guess than a strategy. There was no real structure to it. No benchmark. Just, “I hope this is right.” I get it. I’ve lived it. When you’re self-employed, everything flows through you and sometimes it feels like you’re both the bull and the farmer. Here’s how I approach it in my own firm: Gross Revenue × 50% = Owner’s Income Then: Gross Revenue - Taxes – Rent – Marketing – Professional Associations – Insurance – Utilities – Software – Office Supplies – Misc = Profit or Loss Gross Revenue – Owner’s Income – Taxes – Rent – Marketing – Professional Associations – Insurance – Utilities – Software – Office Supplies – Misc = Retained Earnings From there, I check in quarterly: Can I take more without wrecking my 3- or 5-year goals? If yes, I take a little extra. If no, I wait. Simple, but it works. Is That Formula Right for You? Maybe. Maybe Not. My income is quarterly and consistent because of how financial advisory fees are structured. But you might have uneven cash flows from retail sales, milk checks, project or construction bids, employees to pay, uneven seasonal fruit sales, government contracts, or cull cow runs. Your income rhythm likely looks totally different from mine, so this isn't a one-size-fits-all approach. Remember that the 50% rule I currently go by may not be universally appropriate. Industry Norms Differ:  In some industries, especially those with high overhead (think medical practices, manufacturing, or firms with multiple employees), paying the owner 50% of gross revenue could be unsustainable. Growth Phase Risk:  If your company is in a growth or reinvestment phase, taking 50% off the top can starve your business of the cash needed for hiring, technology, or expansion. Feast-or-Famine Risk:  For businesses with irregular or seasonal revenue, taking 50% every month could leave you short during lean periods. Trying to figure out how to manage and scale the thing you've built is tough and managing the business is something easily avoided. Because that’s where the anxiety creeps in. And if you’re being honest, that’s the part you probably avoid the most. You Work the Business. But Do You Work ON It? I run a wealth management firm and a small cattle ranch. And I know exactly what feels good in both. Working the  business means meeting with families, building financial plans, solving real-world problems. It’s also walking my pasture and fence line, hauling feed with my son, or heading to the auction to buy the next steer. But working on  the business? That’s reconciling books, tracking mileage, managing profit and loss, figuring out pricing, and paying vendors. The shit no one really likes to do when it comes to managing the business but are crucial to its success. Nobody becomes an entrepreneur because they love bookkeeping or tax planning. They do it because they’ve got something they love to do or make, and it just happens to be a viable business. So, You’ve Got Two Choices Carve away the time needed to figure these things out yourself instead of doing the thing you love. OR Hire someone to do it for you, so you can double down on the stuff that fulfills you. Whether it’s retirement planning, managing your investments, organizing your tax strategy, cleaning up your books, or just deciding what to pay yourself… the point is this: You don’t have to do all of it yourself. A good professional doesn’t take control away from you. They give you back your time so you can live the life you actually built the business to support. That’s the whole point, right? To maximize your life in the ways that matter most. Whatever that means to you. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Founding Advisor Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies  Me The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

There Are Two Kinds of Greed Most people think of someone who's greedy as someone constantly chasing more - more money, more power, more shit they don’t need but want. The people who want it to show off their success, their income, their lifestyle. To make others envious of them. The people who will never have enough . But I’ve seen another version that’s just as harmful, maybe worse. It doesn’t always show up as excess. Sometimes, it shows up as fear . And here’s the thing nobody really says out loud: Obsessing over the fear of losing money can be just as much a reflection of greed as obsessing over getting more of it. When Money Starts to Own You I’ve seen people hoard their money the same way some people hoard junk in their house or garage. They don’t think of it like that, of course. They’ll say they’re being smart, staying conservative, protecting what they’ve built. Hoarding money is more respectable right? Absolutely not. The truth? It’s not strategy. It’s an obsession based in fear. People who hoard money shove it into accounts that promise safety - CDs, annuities, savings accounts... anything with a guarantee. Not because they have a goal, but because they’re terrified to see that number dip, even for a second. Even when it goes up, they won’t touch it. They avoid giving it to their kids. They avoid investing it. They avoid using it. They’re afraid to donate it away. Afraid to support causes they care about. Afraid to spend it on something they’ve always wanted. Like shackles, the value of their accounts binds them and, frankly, makes them afraid to live. Because if they do, the value of their accounts will go down. And just like people who hoard physical stuff end up buried by it, people who hoard money end up trapped by it and can’t enjoy their life. What Fear Really Costs People who hoard money can miss out on the most important parts of life. They lose time - sometimes decades - waiting for a moment that feels “safe enough” to do something they actually want to do. They lose sleep stressing over every bump in the market. And the worst part? They lose real chances to show up for their family - not just financially, but relationally . The trips they don’t take. The dinners they don't have. The memories they don’t make. The generosity they keep putting off for "someday.” And for what... A number on a screen? A false sense of control? It's all bullshit. That’s fear wrapped in virtue. Not stewardship. That’s greed wrapped in humility. Not conservatism. Money, at its base level, is a tool. A tool to further drive the relationships you have and want to see flourish. Money Was Never Meant to Sit Still Like a gun used to protect your family, your livestock, your business, or your country - money is a tool. A damn good one. But, like a gun, only if you use it the right way. True stewardship isn’t about hoarding. It’s about direction. Purpose. Movement. It means you’ve got a plan. You invest with intention and spend with joy. You give with open hands and trust that your money will serve  your life - not the other way around. It’s not greedy to enjoy what you’ve earned. It’s not reckless to invest it. It’s not irresponsible to give some away now while you’re here to watch it make an impact - in fact, watching its impact is one of the best parts of being intentional with your money during your life. But hoarding it all just to feel “safe?” That’s a slow, quiet kind of greed. And it doesn’t make anyone’s life better - not yours and not your family’s. It's time to talk about using the wealth you've built with someone who understands and has helped others feel that fulfillment. Someone who will help you use it in a way that honors the relationships and things you value most - your family, faith, friends, and fun. Let’s build a plan that honors what you’ve built without  being afraid to use it. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Founding Advisor Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies  Me The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.

The promise of technology has always been to make people more productive and make products cheaper. If you can produce faster, you should be able to reduce costs. You can create or achieve the same results in a fraction of the time. Or, in the same amount of time, you should be able to achieve higher-quality results. I recently spoke with a business owner (not a client) who told me he bought a new machine for packaging his products. With the old machine, it took about three hours to package a certain amount. The new machine packages the same amount in just 45 minutes. Fantastic, right? Absolutely. The business owner has dramatically increased his efficiency. This will help him continue to grow and increase his margins. The Problem No One Wants to Talk About But here’s the catch: prices for his products have nearly doubled over the past 3 to 4 years. Now, the business not only benefits from much faster production but also from higher prices. This boosts profits even further. While the cost of the new machine needs to be recouped, that’s what the improved efficiency—and the margin it creates—should achieve. Yet prices remain elevated, and consumers are left holding the bag. Why Does This Matter? Because young people, especially Gen Z, are bearing the brunt of these realities. It’s easy for those of us with strong incomes or significant assets to dismiss what they’re experiencing. We often act like they need to "earn their stripes" because we did. But let’s pause to consider what’s happened to them in the past few years: COVID-19 disrupted two or more years of schooling for many, affecting high school, college, and early careers. Inflation ran above 4% annually for over 30 months straight—peaking at more than 9% year-over-year in 2022. While it has cooled, prices for essentials like housing, food, and energy remain well above pre-pandemic levels. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s. This pushed mortgage rates to highs not seen in over two decades and drove loan costs through the roof. Entry-level job markets tightened. There are fewer roles offering growth opportunities or stability right out of school. AI has begun reshaping industries, threatening many entry-level positions and adding uncertainty to career planning. Home prices surged more than 40% in many markets since 2019. With inventory still limited, first-time homeownership is further out of reach. Technology was supposed to make our lives faster, easier, and cheaper. But despite all the innovation, these economic realities show it hasn’t translated into more affordable living or greater security for younger generations. Why Passing on Wealth Early Makes a Difference This is one reason I believe in passing on wealth during your life, instead of keeping it until it's passed on as an inheritance. I’d be surprised if anyone said they’d rather inherit $1 million when they’re 60 than receive $100,000 when they’re 30. Even though $1 million is a lot more, the power of $100,000 at 30 is exponentially greater. Early financial support can help younger family members buy a home, pay off student loans, start a business, or invest in their future. This gives them a foundation to build on when they need it most. By the time someone inherits later in life, after they’ve already built their own foundation, that money moves the needle only slightly. But when you give while you’re still here, you don’t just transfer dollars—you transfer opportunity, confidence, and stability. Most importantly, the feelings of happiness, fulfillment, and profound purpose that come with strengthening your family tree or building your community are unmatched. There’s no better way to create a living legacy than to see the impact your gifts have today. The Ripple Effect of Generosity When you pass on wealth early, you create a ripple effect. Your generosity can inspire others to do the same. Imagine a community where everyone supports each other. It’s a beautiful thought, isn’t it? We often underestimate the power of small acts of kindness. A little help can go a long way. It can change lives. It can change communities. And it can create a legacy that lasts for generations. So, let’s not wait until it’s too late. Let’s act now. If you’re ready to start passing on your wealth responsibly, in a way that brings your family together, aligns with your values, and helps you build a stronger community, let’s talk. Jose Alvarez, CFP ® , MBA Founding Advisor Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies The information presented in this blog is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The author may hold positions in any securities discussed in this blog. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. Images included in this blog are created by artificial intelligence. Any resemblance to any existing persons, past or present, is purely coincidental. The information provided is for informational, entertainment, and educational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services are offered through Harvest Horizon Wealth Strategies LLC, an investment adviser registered with the state of Wisconsin.